K-State fans expecting too much?

KANSAS CITY, Kan. – Preseason expectation.  It is one of the most curious phenomena in sports.  Like clockwork, it filters into conversation as a season draws near, sprinkled in at first before rolling down the hill as the proverbial snowball – gaining astounding power and momentum as the countdown to kickoff races from weeks to days to hours.

Expectation happens everywhere, but not nearly to the level that college football is able to generate from its fans.

Sometimes, like, say, speaking of the Oklahomas and Floridas, it is a carefree and fun exercise, a way to pass the time before the expected wins come into fruition (until the Sooners play in a *big* game, perhaps, but I digress…).

For other schools’ supporters, however, when the expectation game is played with the same reckless abandon as power programs’ fanbases, the result can be much more serious.

Unreasonable expectations sprout and spread through the Eden of good ideas and warm feelings that come with a new coach, a highly-ranked group of new recruits or a returning core.  Eventually, the unreasonable plant sprouts its shiny, juicy fruit, beckoning all those willing to eat.

More often than not, the masses do eat, falling prey to the look and feel only to be severely disappointed by the bitterly disgusting taste of falling short.

The thing is that fruit probably wasn’t as bad as everybody thought.  It was an ordinary piece, not extravagant.  And, had that been the mindset going in, the fruit may have been enjoyed, not disdained.

I wonder if Kansas State’s fanbase, on the whole, fits this analogy going into the 2009 season.

As the ticker counts down to the Wildcats’ Sept. 5 season-opener against Massachusetts at Bill Snyder Family Stadium, conversations have cropped up lately – painting several individual players, and most recently, the defensive line, as tops in the Big 12.

A few words of caution, numbers technically, to K-Staters who have jumped on the wagon of high expectation – 117, 12 and 6.

117
That first number is well known to Wabash faithful.  It is where the Wildcats ranked defensively last season out of 119 Division I-A teams.  Blame has been passed around on why that happened, but the fact is there were about 119 problems with the unit.  Tackling was poor on a good day, coverage fundamentals weren’t taught and therefore weren’t executed and a few players were playing the position for the first time.

Has that all been fixed?  On the line, maybe.  I believe in Brandon Harold at defensive end – enough that he made my preseason All-Big 12 first team.  The hope is that Virginia-transfer senior Jeffrey Fitzgerald will be a monster in the middle, but until he repeats his Cavalier success in Manhattan…  That’s the same thought I have for Xzavier Stewart and Gabe Crews, a couple of beefy returners who have had trouble finding the field in their time with K-State.

The preseason hype, the expectation, conjured up by purple fans is that this line will dominate; that it is at or near the top in the Big 12.  

If all of those defensive tackles play, and are able to dictate a tackle-only blocking situation with Harold and Eric Childs at the other end, then maybe you have something.   Maybe.

Say the front four blossoms.  We have a bit of statistical evidence (Harold’s freshman All-American season and Fitzgerald’s stellar resume) that it will, but say the group really takes off.  The linebackers, led by workhorse sophomore Alex Hrebec (who somehow succeeded last season in spite of the coaching staff) could be okay.  If the group as a whole improves (I still have nightmares of watching the ‘backers run straight into offensive guards’ blocks or bouncing woefully off running backs), then, again, maybe…

The secondary has Joshua Moore – another preseason first-teamer on my list.  Someone has to step up on the other side and provide support over the top.  Misreads were common the past few seasons at the safety spot, and the new staff should help correct that, but again, until the players show improvement on the field, we’re left to wonder.

12
Depth, especially defensively, is the largest among many concerns I have for K-State.  Hampered by an extremely late start in the process, and one of the most pathetic efforts in the history of all recruiting efforts by Ron Prince, Bill Snyder and staff admirably scraped together a class of 25, the top 12 of which, however, were rated three stars.  It equaled out to the lowest-rated class in the Big 12.  Lower than even Iowa State.  Wowza.

While it’s true that recruiting services aren’t spot on with their evaluations a lot, you can’t breeze aside the impact (in the short and long term) of a number that small.  Snyder’s track record says he has found some great ones who were greatly underrated, but I’m willing to bet there aren’t 12 diamonds in that rough.  Even if this class turned out 12 cuts off the Tiffany, the chance they all would be ready to play at a high level from the start is low. Yes, there might be a two-star stud or two, but still, those guys face a **** of a time battling uphill against proven four and five-star guys on other teams, especially on offense, which leads me to the last number.

6
That’s the number of Big 12 quarterbacks on the initial Davey O’Brien award list.  By the way, it is the most of any conference.  The Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Pac-10 all had four.  K-State fans have indicated they believe the Wildcats defense should jump from last year’s 117^th-ranking to somewhere in the top 50.  Again, I caution considering Texas, for all the talent it possesses, finished last season ranked 51^st in total defense. 

Is the conference going to come back a little in terms of offensive numbers?  The safe bet says yes because several quarterbacks of changed.  But, I wonder.  Some of those teams that lost their guy have had a system in place long enough to have another quality signal-caller behind them (see Texas Tech and Missouri).

Three of the six QBs listed as potential O’Brien winners are on K-State’s slate, including a road game against Taylor Potts and Texas Tech, at Oklahoma and Sam Bradford, and then Todd Reesing and the Kansas Jayhawks at home immediately following the Sooners.

At best, yeeesh.  At worst, Potts and Bradford could set records.

All of this said, I have Kansas State picked second in the Big 12 North, which has some K-Staters turning cartwheels.  Here’s the thing: it isn’t because I believe K-State is that good.  I believe scheduling is going to absolutely ruin teams that are better overall (Kansas) than Kansas State, or that the personnel hits (Missouri) are going to have a one or two-game impact – enough to drop a team from second to fourth or fifth in the North.

Now, I believe the Wildcats are going to have several guys turn in pretty darn good years, but that’s not a reach because every team has that.  Injuries are unpredictable, but depth isn’t.  KSU has to avoid them. Losing senior offensive lineman Brock Unruh to a season-ending torn pectoral isn’t a good start.

I believe K-State’s quarterback situation will iron itself out enough to be serviceable, and Daniel Thomas will be a sight for sore eyes after last year’s top “running backs” on the depth chart, Logan Dold and Lamark Brown, have moved to safety and wide receiver, respectively.

Too many things in motion, too much fluidity, too much rebuilding (mentally and physically) for the type of expectations that some have developed for this team.  Eight wins is the absolute ceiling for this team.  If any bumps in the road occur, it could easily be three or four.

My expectation is better fundamentals across the board, better scheming, not the best execution.  The fan side of me says seven or eight wins is possible.  Realistically, I think six wins is the fruit of this team’s labor, seven if they are lucky.

Either way I look at it, a bowl game berth would be a phenomenal accomplishment.


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