By Soren Petro
Last Sunday the Chiefs put together a complete game on both sides of the ball to post an impressive 26-10 win in Oakland. The win brought the Chiefs into a tie in the loss column with both the Raiders and Broncos. It continued Andy Reid’s great success after the bye week. Reid now stands 16-2 coming off a bye.
This week against the Saints the Chiefs have an opportunity to put together back-to-back wins for the first time this season. It will be a strong sign the Chiefs are a team worthy of at least mentioning in conversations about this year’s Super Bowl.
The odds makers appear to be a believer in the Chiefs. They have listed the Chiefs as the third or fourth strongest bet, depending on which sports book you check, to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LI (51). BovadaLV currently has the Chiefs as 7.5 to 1 to win the AFC (3rd best) and 18 to 1 to win the Super Bowl (tied for 8th best).
We’ve talked about Reid’s starts to the season as a head coach. Before this year he has started 2-2 on six different occasions, with five of those seasons ending in the playoffs. Those numbers did a lot to calm the mood after the Chiefs terrible showing against the Steelers on Sunday Night.
Andy Reid is in his 18th season as a head coach. His 164 regular season wins ranks 15th all-time and is better than Mike Holmgren, Joe Gibbs, Hank Stram, Dick Vermeil, John Madden, and Vince Lombardi. His 11 playoff wins ties him for ninth best in league history and puts him ahead of Bill Walsh, Paul Brown, John Madden, and Vince Lombardi. That is impressive company.
It’s clear Reid’s experience serves him well coming off a bye week, serves him well dealing with a bad loss, and serves him well in dealing with slow starts to the season, but can all his time in the NFL actually be a bad thing?
The easy answer is… no. And probably, NO! But I do think there is a legitimate question to ask about whether a coach can have the league pass him by? Or maybe the league doesn’t pass him by, but he becomes so set in his ways he limits the ability of his team to progress beyond a certain level.
Below is a list of the coaches that had the most years in the league before winning the Super Bowl…
|1st Year||Overall||Year with|
29 head coaches have won the Super Bowl and 19 of them won it (or at least won there first) within their first six seasons as a head coach. Like Andy Reid, seven of the ten coaches listed above were coaching for their second team.
If Andy Reid does win a Super Bowl he will have taken more seasons to get it done than any coach in history. Who cares? As long as he wins, right?
The question is whether Reid has found a comfort zone that he can’t rise above? Has he figured out a formula that works to win 10+ games on a regular basis but can’t, or won’t, breakout of his comfort zone to find whatever the last piece is to win a championship? Only time will tell.
Steve Clevenger and Isiah Crowell
By Soren Petro
Steve Clevenger is a catcher for the Seattle Mariners that posted the following two tweets on September 22nd in reference to the protesting going on in Charlotte, NC. On September 24th the Mariners suspended him for the rest of the season.
Clevenger would go on to post the following apology….
"First and foremost," Clevenger said, "I would like to apologize to the Seattle Mariners, my teammates, my family and the fans of our great game for the distraction my tweets on my personal twitter page caused that went public earlier today.
"I am sickened by the idea that anyone would think of me in racist terms. My tweets were reactionary to the events I saw on the news and were worded beyond poorly at best, and I can see how and why someone could read into my tweets far more deeply than how I actually feel.
"I grew up on the streets of Baltimore, a city I love to this very day. I grew up in a very culturally diverse area of America, and I am very proud to come from there. I am also proud that my inner circle of friends has never been defined by race but by the content of their character.
"Any former teammate or anyone who has met me can attest to this, and I pride myself on not being a judgmental person. I just ask that the public not judge me because of an ill-worded tweet.
"I do believe that supporting our First Amendment rights and supporting local law enforcement are not mutually exclusive. With everything going on in the world, I really just want what is best for everyone regardless of who they are. I, like many Americans, are frustrated by a lot of things in the world and I would like to be a part of the dialogue moving forward to make this a better world for everyone.
"I once again apologize to anyone who was offended today, and I just ask you not judge me off of a social media posting. Thank you and God bless everyone."
(Apology from TheOlympian.com)
The posting followed the shooting deaths of two black men in Louisiana and Minnesota by white police officers. Crowell was not suspended by the Browns or the NFL but did donate his first game check to the Dallas Fallen Officer Fund. Isiah Crowell is a running back for the Cleveland Browns. He posted on Instagram, and later removed, the following picture and caption. The posting came in the wake of the shooting of Dallas Police Officers that resulted in five deaths. Crowell was not suspended by the Browns or the NFL but did donate his first game check to the Dallas Fallen Officer Fund.
Crowell later issued an apology through a video that is partially quoted below…
I posted a really disgusting, bad picture and I took it down immediately because I knew I was wrong. Nobody had to tell me to take it down... not my PR, agent or the Browns had to tell me to take it down because I knew I was wrong. I'm sorry, and I hope you understand that that's not who I am. I would never wish violence on anyone, especially a police officer. I'm sorry to all the Browns fans, all the people who support my career, all the kids out there who look up to me, and most of all the good police officers that are out there protecting us everyday.
By posting that picture, I became part of the problem. I don't want to be part of the problem, I want to be part of the solution. And to back that up my first game check is going to the Dallas Fallen Officer Foundation. Also, I'm committed to doing whatever I can to create open dialogue between my communities and the police who serve us.
To put into context the monetary cost for each player, below is each players contract along with what the suspension will cost Clevenger compared to the amount donated by Crowell.
2016 Salary: $516,500
8 Game Suspension: $25,506
2016 Salary: $600,000
1 Game Donation: $37,500
Does the fact that the Mariners suspended Clevenger for the final nine days (8 games) of the season and the Browns did not suspend Crowell represent a double standard?
By Soren Petro
In the NFL there is the game on the field and the game in the front office. The front office game is played at the GM level and involves things like identifying talent, identifying talent that fits the organization’s coaching systems, and making it all fit under the restraints of the salary cap.
The riddle of how to manage the cap is the part of the game that fans want to pay the least attention to. There aren’t many fans that want to hear about the problems caused by a free-agent contract in three years. They want big name players NOW. TODAY! And why not, they can just call for the GM’s head in three years if those contracts have destroyed the roster.
Few fans were concerned with how the Chiefs roster would fit under the cap in 2016 when the Chiefs were signing players during the 2014 offseason. The focus was on winning right now, or right then. One of those decisions was signing Alex Smith to a contract extension, an extension that could’ve waited a year or two.
We’ve talked about the Smith contract a lot in The Program and for good reason. Along with Justin Houston’s contract it is the biggest on the team. At the time of the deal the contract looked very cap heavy for a QB that was a game manager. The good news is, recent year’s Super Bowl champions have made Smith’s contract look much more palatable for a contending team’s cap.
At The Program we’ve been tracking the Super Bowl quarterback performances on the field, but also their cost as well as their hit to the team’s salary cap. Below is a list of how the Super Bowl winning QB’s have affected their team’s cap along with Smith’s salary/cap numbers for the 2016 season.
* 2010 was an uncapped year.
Let’s start with Smith’s numbers for 2016. Hit $17.8M cap hit will take up 11.27% of the Chiefs cap. That would have been a crushing number in years past. You can see that before 2011 no team had won the Super Bowl spending more than 10% of their cap on their starting QB. Starting with Eli Manning and the Giants in 2011, three of the last five winners have had a QB that took up more than 10% of their team’s cap space.
Even better for the Chiefs is the fact the Broncos won last year with Peyton Manning taking up almost 12% of the cap to be a handoff machine throughout the post-season. Smith will certainly give the Chiefs more in 2016 (assuming he’s healthy) than what the Broncos got from Peyton. The question for the Chiefs will be if Smith can give them enough more to make up for the gap between last year’s Broncos defense and the 2016 edition of the Chiefs.
The Chiefs have benefitted from the expanding NFL Salary Cap. Smith’s contract is still on the fringes of what can be carried by a team built to win with the QB and not because of the QB, but it’s certainly not a roadblock to winning a championship. If the Chiefs don’t win the Super Bowl it won’t be because of Smith’s contract.
Playoff QB’s vs. Playoff Teams
I heard a discussion about the contract situation with Kirk Cousins playing under the franchise tag for the Washington Redskins this year. The knock on Cousins was that even though he guided the Redskins into the playoffs, he wasn’t able to beat a playoff quarterback last season. The point being that the Redskins and his success was based solely on the luck of an easy draw schedule wise.
This got me thinking about how well all of the quarterbacks in the playoffs did against their playoff brethren. Here is a look at how all of the quarterbacks for the twelve 2015 playoff teams fared against the other playoff teams during the ‘15 regular season.
It’s not shocking to see the two Super Bowl QB’s in the top 3, and if you add in Osweiler’s 2-1 to Manning’s 3-1 you get a NFL best five wins against playoff teams for the Broncos.
While no position lends itself to a win/loss evaluation more than the quarterback, it is still a team game. There is no doubt the top four on the list (Newton, Palmer, Manning, and Brady) are four of the biggest names in the QB world, but they also boast a top 10 defense on the other side of the ball. Smith and the Chiefs defense fit nicely into that category as well. The Chiefs defense ranked #7 in yards and #3 in points.
This season the question will be whether the defense can keep it’s end of the bargain up while waiting on Justin Houston’s rehab and the departure of Sean Smith. If the defense takes a step back, which is a reasonable expectation, the offense along with Alex Smith will need to take a step forward.
By Soren Petro
This season, and every season after is now a make or break year for Alex Smith. The 2017 season will mark the first time Smith is cheaper to cut than keep. That is a critical point in a player’s contract. It’s when the player must perform at the level of his cap space or he will be gone. For 2017 Smith’s cap hit drops by $17.7-million.
Here is how Smith’s contract breaks out…
CONTRACT: 4 years for $68,000,000
SIGNING BONUS: $18,000,000
· All contract information from spotrac.com
Clearly cutting Smith has not been an option for the Chiefs the first three years of the deal. 2017 will be the first year the Chiefs can save money on the cap by releasing Smith, so it will be critical for him to play at a $17-million level. If he fails to play well this year the Chiefs could turn to Nick Foles and his $10.4M team option as the starter in ’17.
Here is a look at Foles contract with the Chiefs…
· 2017 is a team option.
The lack of guaranteed money means the Chiefs can walk away from Foles at any time with no salary cap hit. It’s unlikely to happen, but the Chiefs could cut Foles before the regular season. The $10.75-million cap hit next season means that cutting Smith and keeping Foles would cost the Chiefs only $1-million more against the cap than keeping Smith and walking on Foles. However going with Foles would save the organization $2.5-million in actual cash money.
Smith’s contract was a huge investment for the Chiefs when it was signed but is certainly starting look a lot more comfortable for the team. First, the cap has risen to $155-million. That drops Smith’s $17.8-million cap hit down to just 11.27% of the Chiefs total salary cap figure. That figure is lower than the 12.09% of the cap Justin Houston is taking up.
Second is the deal just completed by the Bills with Tyrod Taylor. Taylor’s deal is five years and $90-million, however unlike Smith’s $45-million in guaranteed money Taylor is guaranteed only $9.5-million.
The deal reflects the changing times of the mid-level quarterback contract. Teams like the Chiefs and Bills know they don’t have a better answer at quarterback, but also have to avoid locking up huge amounts of money in a QB that is not considered a ture “franchise quarterback.” The Chiefs contract has smaller total dollars involved in it, but guarantees a lot more money. It also guaranteed that Smith would be the starter through this year.
Taylor’s contract is very similar to the ones signed by Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton. Like Taylor, they have contracts that give the team the ability to get rid of the player if they aren’t living up to the big salaries. The Chiefs will gain that kind of flexibility next season.
By Soren Petro
The Royals were already trying to answer several very important questions before yesterday’s announcement that Mike Moustakas would, in all likelihood, be lost for the season. How to replace Alex Gordon while he is out with a wrist injury? Who is going to handle the fourth and fifth spot in the rotation? Can Omar Infante handle second base as an everyday player?
Well now you can throw more questions into the mix with Moustakas ACL injury. Here are three major questions the Royals will need to answer with the end of Moose’s season.
1. Who handles third?
The Royals actually have a couple of options. Cheslor Cuthbert has been tearing up Triple-A and has at least showcased survival skills at the plate. While he is a fan favorite right now, his .250 OBP and .339 slug are going to wear on the fans quickly if they don’t improve. He looks the part with the glove but the bat will have to improve if the Royals are to thrive rather than survive with him at third.
Whit Merrifield is the second option. The Royals would prefer to not have to go down this road. If Cuthbert can handle third it allows Merrifield to handle the “Super-Sub” role the Royals have envisioned for him this season. Not starting at third also gives him a chance to be used as a pinch runner, which is an important weapon for Yost to have on his bench with Dyson being pressed into a more regular role.
An option down the road could be Hunter Dozier. After a disappointing 2015 that had him falling off many people’s prospect map, this year he’s putting up a slash line of .301/.370/.590 over 95 AB’s in double-A and 71 in Triple-A. Twelve homers and 12 doubles are a good sign he is mastering the strike zone from a power perspective, but his 17 BB’s against 43 K’s say there would be some pretty dramatic droughts for him at the plate in the big leagues. He looks more like the long-term answer at the position if Moustakas is not signed to a contract extension after 2017.
2. Who bats second?
Merrifield has handled the duties for the last three games. So far so good, as he was 6-for-15 with four runs scored in Minnesota. However, he is a career .274 hitter in the minor leagues and wasn’t able to conquer the bus circuit until he was 27 years old. Those two things generally don’t add up to a No. 2 hitter on a playoff caliber team. But, then again, there are a lot of baseball formulas the Royals have put together the last couple of years that didn’t traditionally add up to championship baseball. Maybe the career minor leaguer batting second is the Royals new batting theorem.
I’ll nominate my usual suspect here as well. I would like to see Lorenzo Cain pushed up into that spot in the order. In the last 10 years, there have been a number of baseball stat heads that have penned pieces supporting the idea of the No. 2 hitter being more important than the No. 3. Cain has been arguably the Royals best hitter the last two years and it is never a bad idea to get more AB’s for your better hitters.
Finally, I’ll nominate a healthy Alex Gordon. Gordon has struggled this year so a change of scenery in the batting order could do him so good. It would get him to the plate in the first inning with Cain standing in the batter’s box - which should result in more fastballs for Gordon. It also gives Ned is right-left-right top of the order he seems to be committed to. For his career (small sample size of 126 plate appearances), Gordon has slashed .342/.421/.532 when batting second.
3. How it affects Moustakas future with the club?
For this question, we’re assuming the “done for the season” conclusion most of us have reached is reality. A big part of this question will be answered by how quickly he can come back from the injury. You would assume they would perform surgery in the next week or 10 days. To make it easy let’s call it June 1st.
The modern rehab for your typical ACL injury is 9 to 12 months. Nine months would have him ready for the start of Spring Training. He would be watched closely for sure but would be able to begin getting ready to start 2017 in the starting lineup. If it is more like 12 months you are talking May 1st.
This is an important distinction. If the organization doesn’t think they can count on him for the start of spring, they will have to have another option lined up to handle third base. This could keep the Royals from trading either Cuthbert or Dozier in the off-season. Quality at third base is hard to find in the big leagues and continued progress form Cuthbert and Dozier could make them an attractive trade chip in acquiring the next veteran starting pitcher the Royals are going to need to sign. But that is a subject for a different day.
ESPN’s Jim Bowden said on The Program before the season that the Royals had the money to sign most of the corps of their team, but would probably have to trade one of the main players for prospects after 2016. The thinking being that they could replenish the system in some key areas to keep the winning window open longer than just 2017.
Moustakas rehabbing an ACL injury means you can’t maximize his value on the trade market if he is the one you were going to move, and with Cuthbert and Dozier, that is the position with the most depth. If he wasn’t the piece the Royals wanted to trade, it gets harder to determine his value on a long-term contract extension. That could be good if it drives his asking price down or it could be bad if it puts the Royals and Boras on different pages of what his value is.
There is no doubt a contract extension gets a lot riskier for the Royals now. Moustakas was batting .240/.301/.500 on the season. You like the slugging percentage but are at least a little concerned about the average and on-base percentage. It would be a lot easier to put a five-year contract in front of him if he had backed up last year’s breakout season with another 20 homers and .817 OPS. Any contract extension given this offseason would be a much bigger leap of faith.
There are no games scheduled for today.
There are no games scheduled for today.
There are no games scheduled for today.